Investment Asset Management--Our Fact Based Strategy
FACT: Something that actually exists; reality; truth.
We have certain core beliefs about the market that form the foundation of our investment process:
- We don't know where the market will go, and neither does anyone else
- Wherever the market goes, it will get there by trending
- Along the way, there will be outperformers and underperformers
Understanding these tenets allows us to construct portfolios that are well equipped to handle whatever the market brings. Using the market laws of supply and demand, our fact based strategy concentrates on identifying market trends to determine our degree of market exposure, and then we identify the outperformers to include in our portfolios.
Our portfolios are built on academic facts, not theories or market hypothesisis.
Our methodologies allow us to profit in bull markets, and protect in bear markets, which allowed our portfolios to avoid the collapse of 2008.
We believe that facts and results speak for themselves, and are more powerful than colorful commentaries, entertaining forecasts, or whimsical predictions from market gurus and soothsayers.
Three Characteristics of our Fact-Based Investing strategies:
- There are no predicions, opinions, outlooks, or forecasts. We focus on the measurements that reflect the continuous tug-of war relationship between the market forces of supply and demand and base our decisions on "What Is" not what "might" or "ought" to happen.
- We make no assumptions about Market 'efficiency' or rationality. Fact-Based investing embraces the reality of inefficient, irrational markets, and tries to use those characteristics to our advantage.
- We do not remain fully-invested regardless of Bear Market circumstances.
THEORY: a proposed explanation whose status is still conjectural and subject to experimentation, in contrast to well-established propositions that are regarded as reporting matters of actual fact.
Chief among the academic theories that drive investing advice are:
• The Efficient Market Hypothesis
• The Rational Investor Theory
• Modern Portfolio Theory
• The Efficient Frontier
• Strategic Asset Allocation (known to many investors as pie charts)
What all of these have in common, is that each of them states what ‘ought’ to happen and how Markets and investors ‘ought’ to behave, based on theoretical models and equations.
Alan Greenspan, America’s chief economist during his 20-year tenure as Federal Reserve Chairman, was forced to admit that the academic theories underpinning his work were flawed. He told Congress in 2009:
‘I was wrong. The model that I believed in for 40 years did not work.’
Fact-Based Investing, concentrating on the ‘what is’ of Market supply and demand, rejects the ‘what might be’ of Prediction-Based Investing and the ‘what ought to be’ of Theory-Based Investing.